Douglas Woolford

TD Professor in Data Analytics
Director Master of Data Analytics
Associate Professor of Environmetrics
Office: WSC 221
Phone: 519-661-2111 x88326


Ph.D. University of Western Ontario, 2007

Research Areas

 Wildland-Fire-Logo4.jpg •  Data science and analytics

  •  Forest and wildland fire science

  •  Forest and wildland fire management

  •  Fire occurrence prediction, risk assessment and risk modelling

  •  Stochastic models and applied statistics

  •  Education in the mathematical and statistical sciences



Graduate Lab Members



  • Johanna de Haan Ward
  • Nathan Phelps
  • Zixuan Yang


  • Tala Abuadas
  • Daniel Guerrero

Honours Thesis

  • Mir Mubasher


  • Granville, K., Woolford, D.G., Dean, C.B., Boychuk, D., & McFayden, C.B. (2022). On the Selection of an Interpolation Method with an Application to the Fire Weather Index in Ontario, Canada. Environmetrics. 

  • Wheatley, M., Wotton, B.M., Woolford, D.G., Martell, D.L., Johnston, J.M. Modelling initial attack success on wildfires supported by air attack in Ontario, Canada. To appear in International Journal of Wildland Fire.

  • Dean, C.B., El-Shaarawi, A.H., Esterby, S.R., Mills-Flemming, J., Routeledge, R.D., Taylor, S.W., Woolford, D.G., Zidek, J.V., & Zwiers, F.W. Canadian Contributions to Environmetrics. To appear in Canadian Journal of Statistics.

  • Granville, K., Woolford, D.G., Dean, C.B., McFayden, C.B. (2022). A Case-Crossover Study of the Impact of the Modifying Industrial Operations Protocol on the Frequency of Industrial Forestry-Caused Wildland Fires in Ontario, Canada. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics.

  • Granville, K., Woolford, D. G., Dean, C. B., & McFayden, C. B. (2022). Wildland fire prevention: the impact of the Modifying Industrial Operations Protocol on the growth of industrial forestry-caused wildland fires in Ontario, Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire

  • Becker, D. G., Woolford, D. G., & Dean, C. B. (2022). Assessing dependence between frequency and severity through shared random effects. PLOS ONE17(8), e0271904.

  • Hanes, C. C., Wotton, M., Woolford, D. G., Martell, D. L., & Flannigan, M. (2022). Mapping organic layer thickness and fuel load of the boreal forest in Alberta, Canada. Geoderma417, 115827.

  • Phelps, N., & Woolford, D.G. (2021). Comparing calibrated statistical and machine learning methods for wildland fire occurrence prediction: a case study of human-caused fires in Lac La Biche, Alberta, Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 

  • Boychuk, D., McFayden, C.B., Woolford, D.G., Wotton, M., Stacey, A., Evens, J., Hanes, C., and Wheatley, M. (2021). Considerations for Categorizing and Visualizing Numerical Information: A Case Study of Fire Occurrence Prediction Models in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Fire, 4, 50.

  • Kotsopoulos, D., Weatherby, C., & Woolford, D.G. (2021). Using guided notes to support learning in first year calculus. International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology.

  • Phelps, N., Woolford, D.G. (2021). Guidelines for effective evaluation and comparison of wildland fire occurrence prediction models. International Journal of Wildland Fire.   

  • Woolford, D.G., Martell, D.L., McFayden, C.B., Evens, J., Stacey, A., Wotton, B.M., Boychuk, D. (2021). The Development and Implementation of a Human-Caused Wildland Fire Occurrence Prediction System for the Province of Ontario, Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 51: 303-325. 

  • Becker, D.G., Woolford, D.G., Dean, C.B. (2020). Algorithmically Deconstructing Shot Locations as a Method for Shot Quality in Hockey. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports.

  • Savage, D.W., Woolford, D.G., Weaver, B., Simpson, M., Wood, D., Ohle, R. (2020). Predicting patient admission from the emergency department using triage administrative and diagnostic investigation data. International Journal of Extreme Automation and Connectivity in Healthcare. 2: 1-11.

  • Hanes, C., Wotton, M., Woolford, D.G., Martell, D., and Flannigan, M. (2020). Preceding fall drought conditions and overwinter precipitation effects on spring wildland fire activity. Fire, 3(2), 24 (16 pages).

  • Boychuk, D., McFayden, C.B., Evens, J., Shields, J., Stacey, A., Woolford, D.G., Wotton, M., Johnston, D., Leonard, D., McLarty, D. (2020). Assembling and customizing multiple fire weather forecasts for burn probability and other fire management applications in Ontario, Canada. Fire, 3(2), 16. (20 pages).

  • Nadeem, K., Taylor, S.W., Woolford, D.G., and Dean, C.B. (2020). Mesoscale Spatio-temporal Predictive Models of Daily Human and Lightning-caused Wildland Fires in British Columbia. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 29, 11-27.

  • McFayden, C.B., Woolford, D.G., Stacey, A., Boychuk, D., Johnston, J.M., Wheatley, M.J., and Martell, D.L. (2019) Risk assessment for wildland fire aerial detection patrol route planning in Ontario, Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 29, 28-41.

  • McFayden, C.B., Boychuk, D., Woolford, D.G., and Wheatley, M.J. (2019). Impacts of wildland fire effects on resources and assets through expert elicitation to support fire response decisions. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 28, 885-900.

  • Morin, A.A., Albert-Green, A., Woolford, D.G., and Martell, D.L. (2019). Frailty Models for the Control Time of Wildland Fires in the Former Intensive Fire Management Zone of Ontario, Canada. Journal of Environmental Statistics, 9(5), 1-16.

  • Tymstra, C., Woolford, D.G., and Flannigan, M.D. (2019). Statistical Surveillance Thresholds for Enhanced Situational Awareness of Spring Wildfire Activity in Alberta, Canada. Journal of Environmental Statistics, 9(4), 1-26.

  • Becker, D.G., Braun, W.J., Dean, C.B., and Woolford, D.G. (2019). Visualizing Multivariate Time Series of Aerial Fire Fighting Data. Journal of Environmental Statistics, 9(1), 1-16.

  • Wang, X.J., Thompson, R.J., Braun, W.J., and Woolford, D.G. (2019). Fitting a Stochastic Fire Spread Model to Data. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 5, 57-66.

  • Paudel, A., Martell, D.L., and Woolford, D.G. (2019). Factors that affect the timing of the dispatch of initial attack resources to forest fires in northeastern Ontario, Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 28(1), 15-24.

  • Xi, D.Z., Taylor, S.W., Woolford, D.G., and Dean, C.B. (2019) Statistical models of key components of wildfire risk. Annual Review of Statistics and its Applications, 6, 197-222.

  • Weatherby, C., Kotsopoulos, D., Woolford, D.G., and Khattak, L. (2018) A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Mathematics Education Practices at Canadian Universities. Journal of Teaching and Learning, 12, 1-20.

  • Morin, A.A., Albert-Green, A., Woolford, D.G., and Martell, D.L. (2015). The use of survival analysis methods to model the control time of forest fires in Ontario, Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 24, 964-973.

  • Savage, D.W., Woolford, D.G., Weaver, B., and Wood, D. (2015). Developing emergency department physician shift schedules optimized to meet patient demand. Canadian Journal of Emergency Medicine, 17, 3-12.

  • Drekic, S., Stanford, D.A., Woolford, D.G., and McAlister, V.C. (2015). A model for deceased-donor transplant queue waiting times. Queueing Systems, 79, 87-115.

  • Woolford, D.G., Dean, C.B., Martell, D.L., Cao, J. and Wotton, B.M. (2014). Lightning-caused forest fire risk in northwestern Ontario, Canada is increasing and associated with anomalies in fire-weather. Environmetrics, 25, 406-416.

  • Albert-Green, A., Braun, W.J., Martell, D.L., and Woolford, D.G. (2014). Visualization tools for assessing the Markov property: sojourn times in the Ontario Fire Weather Index. Environmetrics, 25, 417-430.

  • Taylor, S.W., Woolford, D.G., Dean, C.B., and Martell, D.L. (2013). Wildfire prediction to inform fire management at multiple scales: statistical science challenges. Statistical Science, 28, 586-615.

  • Savage, D., Wotton, B.M., Martell, D.L., and Woolford, D.G. (2013). The impact of uncertainty concerning historical burned area estimates on forest management planning. Forest Science, 59, 578-588.

  • Braun, W.J. and Woolford, D.G. (2013). Assessing a stochastic fire spread simulator. Journal of Environmental Informatics, 22, 1-12.

  • Albert-Green, A., Dean, C.B., Martell, D.L., and Woolford, D.G. (2013). A methodology for investigating trends in changes in the timing of the fire season with applications to lightning-caused forest fires in Alberta and Ontario, Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 43(1), 39-45.

  • Dean, C.B., Braun, W.J., Martell, D.L., and Woolford, D.G. (2012). Interdisciplinary training in a collaborative research environment. Pages 69 - 73 in Chrisman and Wachowicz (Eds.), The Added Value of Scientific Networking: Perspectives from the GEOIDE Network Members 1998-2012. GEOIDE Network, Quebec, Canada.

  • Woolford, D.G., Bellhouse, D.R., Braun, W.J., Dean, C.B., Martell, D.L., and Sun, J. (2011). A spatio-temporal model for people-caused forest fire occurrence in the Romeo Malette forest. Journal of Environmental Statistics, 2, 1-26.

  • Woolford, D.G., Cao, J., Dean, C.B. and Martell, D.L. (2010). Characterizing temporal changes in forest fire ignitions: looking for climate change signals in a region of the Canadian boreal forest. Environmetrics, 21, 789-800.

  • Vilar, L., Woolford, D.G., Martell, D.L. and Martin, M. (2010). A model for predicting human-caused wildfire occurrence in the region of Madrid, Spain. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 19, 325-337.

  • Braun, W.J., Jones, B., Lee, J., Woolford, D.G., and Wotton, B.M. (2010). Forest fire risk assessment: an illustrative example from Ontario, Canada. Journal of Probability and Statistics, 2010: Article ID 823018, 26 pages. doi:10.1155/2010/823018.

  • Woolford, D.G., Braun, W.J., Dean, C.B. and Martell, D.L. (2009). Site-specific seasonal baselines for fire risk in Ontario. GEOMATICA, 63, 355-363.

  • Zhou, L., Braun, W.J., Woolford, D.G., and Wotton, B.M. (2009). A simulation study of predicting flush date. Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation, 38, 1071-1082.

  • Woolford, D.G., Stanford, D.A., Kulperger, R.J., Boychuk, D., and Wotton, B.M. (2008). Erlangian approximations for the transient analysis of a fluid queue model for fire perimeter.  INFOR, 47, 305-317.

  • Ramaswami, V., Woolford, D.G., and Stanford, D.A. (2008). The erlangization method for Markovian fluid flows. Annals of Operations Research, 160, 215-225.

  • Woolford, D.G. and Braun, W.J. (2007). Convergent data sharpening for the identification and tracking of spatial-temporal centers of lightning activity. Environmetrics, 18, 461-479.
    Stanford, D.A., Latouche, G., Woolford, D.G., Boychuk, D., and Hunchak, A. (2005). Fire perimeter analyzed as a fluid queue. Stochastic Models, 21, 631-642.

  • Drekic, S. and Woolford, D.G. (2005). A preemptive priority queue with balking. European Journal of Operational Research, 164, 387-401.